Southwest Florida’s housing market is showing signs of serious cooling, with home sellers slashing prices at rates not seen in over a decade. Real estate experts say the current conditions are starting to resemble the post-recession recovery period of the late 2000s.
According to Shelton Weeks, a real estate professor at Florida Gulf Coast University, the volume of price reductions across the region echoes the adjustments seen after the 2007–2009 financial crisis. “It’s been a long time since we’ve seen this kind of activity,” Weeks told WINK News.
What’s Driving the Shift?
Florida’s housing boom during the pandemic brought an influx of new residents chasing sunshine, space, and lower taxes. Builders responded quickly, making Florida the leader in new home construction nationwide. But now, the slowdown in remote work and a drop in migration into the state are colliding with higher living costs and rising insurance premiums—especially in areas prone to hurricanes.
At the same time, the market is seeing a surge in available homes. In January, Florida recorded the highest inventory levels in over a decade, with over 172,000 homes listed for sale. By February, that number had jumped to more than 222,000—an increase of nearly 18% year-over-year.
Despite the increased selection, buyers remain hesitant due to high interest rates, which continue to hover between 6% and 7%, and elevated costs of ownership.
What’s Happening in Key Markets
Tampa: 32% of homes had price cuts in February. Home sales rose slightly, while the median sale price climbed to $450,500.
Cape Coral: Nearly 45% of homes saw price reductions. Sales were down over 14%, and the median home price dropped to $390,000.
Fort Myers: Sales fell by nearly 25%. More than 40% of listings had price cuts, with a median price of $382,500.
Naples: Despite 39% of listings showing reduced prices, the median home price soared to $1.2 million, up 43% year-over-year.
Punta Gorda: Price reductions affected nearly 40% of listings. While contract signings were up slightly, the median home price plunged 35% to $360,000.
Expert Insight: Market Cooling, Not Crashing
Local brokers say that buyer urgency has faded. “Inventory is at an all-time high,” said Adam Bartomeo of Bartomeo Realty. “Buyers are waiting. I expect both home prices and rental rates to continue to ease through the rest of the year.”
National analysts agree that this isn’t another housing collapse—but rather a long-overdue correction following years of overheated growth. Incentives from homebuilders are becoming more common as they attempt to move inventory.
While the situation may feel familiar to the housing crash of 2008, most economists believe Florida is headed for a rebalancing—not a full-blown crisis.
